Trump Approval Ratings by State: Where Support Stands in 2024

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, former President Donald Trump’s approval ratings remain a critical measure of his political viability. Unlike national polling averages, which can obscure regional variations, state-level approval ratings reveal where his support is strongest—and where it is fading. These numbers don’t just reflect voter preferences; they signal potential battleground states, fundraising advantages, and strategic campaign priorities.

Examining approval data by state provides deeper insight into the electoral map. Some regions show unwavering loyalty to Trump, while others reflect growing skepticism or shifting political trends. Understanding these dynamics is essential for both campaigns and analysts tracking the race’s trajectory.

Key States Where Trump’s Approval Remains Strong

Several states continue to demonstrate robust support for Trump, often exceeding his 2020 performance. These regions typically align with his core base—rural areas, smaller cities, and communities with strong conservative traditions. In states like Wyoming, North Dakota, and West Virginia, Trump’s approval often hovers above 60%, reflecting deep partisan alignment and limited competition from Democratic alternatives.

In the South, states such as Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi have shown consistently high approval ratings for Trump, often surpassing 55%. These numbers align with broader regional trends, where conservative values and skepticism of federal government policies reinforce Trump’s appeal. Even in states with Democratic governors or legislatures, local approval of Trump remains elevated compared to national averages.

Top Five States with Highest Trump Approval Ratings (2024 Estimates)

1. Wyoming: 65% approval
2. North Dakota: 63% approval
3. West Virginia: 61% approval
4. Alabama: 59% approval
5. Idaho: 58% approval

These numbers suggest that Trump’s base remains solid in regions where economic concerns, cultural values, and distrust of national institutions are most pronounced. For his campaign, these states represent reliable anchors—areas where voter turnout efforts and fundraising can yield high returns with minimal effort.

Swing States: Where Trump’s Approval is Volatile

Swing states remain the battleground where approval ratings matter most. In states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Trump’s support has fluctuated significantly since 2020. These regions are not monolithic; rural areas may lean heavily toward Trump, while suburban and urban centers often show weaker approval. This divide creates both opportunities and challenges for his campaign.

In Pennsylvania, for example, Trump’s approval has hovered around 48-50% in recent polls, with strong support in counties like Lancaster and Butler, but weaker numbers in Philadelphia and its suburbs. Similarly, in Michigan, Trump’s approval has dipped below 45% in some surveys, particularly in areas with higher education levels and diverse populations.

Swing States with Competitive Trump Approval Ratings

• Pennsylvania: 48-50% approval
• Michigan: 44-47% approval
• Wisconsin: 46-49% approval
• Arizona: 47-50% approval
• Georgia: 45-48% approval

These competitive states underscore the importance of targeted messaging and voter outreach. Trump’s campaign must balance appeals to his base while addressing concerns in suburban areas—where economic issues and cultural shifts have eroded some of his 2016 gains. The volatility in these states means that even small shifts in approval can determine the outcome of the election.

States Where Trump’s Approval is Declining

Not all regions have remained loyal to Trump. In several states, approval ratings have trended downward since 2020, often due to demographic changes, economic concerns, or dissatisfaction with his leadership style. In states like California, New York, and Illinois, Trump’s approval remains below 35%, reflecting deep partisan divides and urban-rural contrasts.

Even in some traditionally conservative states, approval has slipped. In Florida, for example, Trump’s ratings have dropped from near 55% in 2020 to around 48% in 2024, partly due to shifts in Latino voter preferences and concerns over insurance costs and property insurance crises. Similarly, in Texas, a state Trump once dominated, approval has fallen to around 46%, with younger voters and suburban residents showing growing skepticism.

“The erosion of Trump’s support in key states highlights the challenges of maintaining a coalition built on cultural and economic grievances. As voter priorities shift, his campaign must adapt or risk losing ground in critical regions.”

Broader Implications for the 2024 Election

Trump’s approval ratings by state are more than just numbers—they are a roadmap for his campaign’s strategy. States with high approval ratings offer safe ground for rallies, fundraising, and base mobilization. Meanwhile, swing states with competitive approval ratings require intense focus, with campaigns likely to prioritize advertising, canvassing, and policy rollouts tailored to local concerns.

The decline in approval in certain regions suggests that Trump’s message may not resonate as strongly as it once did. Economic issues, such as inflation and housing costs, have taken a toll on his support, particularly among younger voters and suburban families. His campaign’s ability to address these concerns—or reframe them in a way that aligns with his brand—will be crucial in the coming months.

For Democrats, these approval ratings present both challenges and opportunities. In states where Trump’s support is waning, Democratic candidates may see an opening to expand their base. However, in regions where Trump remains popular, Democrats will need to craft messages that resonate with local priorities rather than relying on national trends.

Ultimately, the 2024 election may hinge on Trump’s ability to consolidate his base while making inroads in competitive states. His approval ratings by state will be a key indicator of where that effort is succeeding—and where it is falling short.

Key Takeaways for the 2024 Election

• Trump’s approval remains strongest in rural and conservative-leaning states, often exceeding 60%.
• Swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin show volatile approval, reflecting deep divides.
• Declining approval in states like Florida and Texas signals shifting voter priorities.
• Economic concerns and demographic changes are reshaping Trump’s coalition.
• The 2024 election may be decided by Trump’s ability to address these shifts while energizing his base.

As the race intensifies, state-level approval ratings will continue to serve as a vital barometer of Trump’s political strength. For voters, campaigns, and analysts alike, these numbers offer a clearer picture of where the election is truly being won—and lost.

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