javier assad
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Javier Assad’s Rise from Undrafted to Cubs’ Rotation Anchor
Javier Assad’s journey to Major League Baseball’s biggest stages is a testament to perseverance and adaptability. Signed by the Chicago Cubs as an undrafted free agent in 2018, Assad’s path to the majors wasn’t paved with immediate accolades. Instead, it was marked by incremental growth, strategic refinements, and an unrelenting work ethic that caught the attention of Cubs’ brass.
Assad’s minor league tenure was defined by his ability to limit walks and induce weak contact, a skill that translated surprisingly well despite his modest velocity. By 2022, his progression culminated in a 3.57 ERA across three minor league levels, including a dominant stint at Triple-A Iowa. That performance earned him his first major league call-up in August 2022, where he made seven appearances out of the bullpen. His ability to pitch in high-leverage situations, particularly his 3.38 ERA in those early outings, hinted at a pitcher who could soon become a rotation mainstay.
Breaking Down Assad’s Pitching Arsenal
Assad’s repertoire is built on deception rather than overpowering stuff, making him a challenging matchup even for elite hitters. His fastball sits in the low-to-mid 90s, but it’s his ability to locate it with precision that sets him apart. The pitch generates a league-average whiff rate, aided by its late movement, which often catches hitters off guard. Complementing the fastball is his cutter, a secondary offering that has become one of his most effective weapons. In 2023, hitters managed just a .211 batting average against the cutter, a testament to its effectiveness in inducing weak contact and ground balls.
His changeup serves as another key pitch, particularly against right-handed hitters. The pitch tunnels well with his fastball, making it difficult for batters to distinguish between the two until the last possible moment. Assad’s curveball, though used sparingly, adds another layer of unpredictability. While it ranks among his least effective pitches statistically, its mere presence keeps hitters honest and prevents them from sitting dead red on his fastball or cutter. Below is a breakdown of Assad’s pitch usage and effectiveness in 2023:
| Pitch Type | Usage Rate | Whiff Rate | Batting Average Against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam Fastball | 45.2% | 20.1% | .245 |
| Cutter | 28.7% | 23.8% | .211 |
| Changeup | 18.5% | 22.4% | .198 |
| Curveball | 7.6% | 15.3% | .286 |
The 2023 Breakout Season and Its Impact
Assad’s 2023 season marked his first full campaign in the majors, and the results were nothing short of impressive. Appearing in 26 games, 24 of which were starts, he posted a 3.57 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP, numbers that placed him among the top mid-rotation arms in the National League. His ability to consistently work deep into games—averaging 5.7 innings per start—provided the Cubs with a reliable arm in a rotation that often struggled with depth. One of the most telling statistics from his breakout year was his strand rate of 76.8%, a figure that suggests his performance wasn’t merely a product of luck but rather a reflection of his ability to limit damage when runners were in scoring position.
Assad’s performance also drew comparisons to other pitchers who relied on similar repertoires to succeed at the major league level. His ability to induce ground balls—his 48.2% ground ball rate ranked in the 70th percentile among qualified NL pitchers—made him particularly effective in Wrigley Field’s spacious outfield. This ground ball tendency not only suppressed home runs but also kept the ball in play, allowing the Cubs’ defense to make plays behind him. His 2023 season was a masterclass in pitching to contact, a strategy that often flies under the radar in an era dominated by strikeout-heavy arms.
Assad’s Role in the Cubs’ Future and Potential Adjustments
As the Cubs look to build a competitive team around a core of young talent, pitchers like Assad represent a cost-effective solution to fill out the rotation. His 2024 salary of $740,000 places him among the lowest-paid starting pitchers in baseball, yet his production has been anything but pedestrian. This affordability gives the Cubs financial flexibility to address other areas of the roster, whether through free agency or trades, without overcommitting to high-priced veterans. Assad’s role in the rotation is likely to expand in 2024, especially if he continues to demonstrate the same level of consistency he showed in 2023.
However, Assad’s path to sustained success isn’t without challenges. One area of concern is his platoon splits, which have been more pronounced than those of most major league pitchers. Left-handed hitters have posted a .278 batting average against him in his career, compared to just .215 against righties. This vulnerability could be exploited by opposing managers in high-stakes situations, particularly in interleague play or against division rivals like the Milwaukee Brewers, who boast several left-handed power hitters. To mitigate this, Assad may need to refine his approach against lefties, potentially increasing his usage of the changeup or adjusting the sequencing of his pitches to keep hitters off balance.
Another consideration is Assad’s durability. While he averaged nearly six innings per start in 2023, his career high in innings pitched in a single season is just 110.2. The Cubs will need to monitor his workload closely, especially if they plan to integrate him into a postseason rotation. Pitching coach Danny Hultzen has worked with Assad to refine his mechanics, particularly his delivery, which has been linked to occasional command issues. Small adjustments to his stride length and release point could further enhance his control, allowing him to reach even higher levels of consistency.
What’s Next for Javier Assad?
The 2024 season presents an opportunity for Assad to cement his role as a cornerstone of the Cubs’ rotation. With a mix of young talent and experienced veterans, the Cubs are positioning themselves as contenders in the NL Central. Assad’s ability to provide innings while limiting damage will be crucial in a division that features powerhouse offenses like the St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds. If he can build on his 2023 success, he could find himself at the center of trade discussions or even arbitration-eligible for a significant raise by 2025, reflecting his growing value to the organization.
For fans of the Cubs, Assad represents more than just a pitcher; he embodies the team’s commitment to developing homegrown talent. His story is a reminder that success in baseball isn’t solely reserved for top draft picks or high-profile prospects. Instead, it’s often the result of hard work, adaptability, and the willingness to grind through the minors. As Assad continues to refine his craft, the baseball world will be watching closely to see if he can replicate his 2023 breakout season and become a perennial All-Star caliber arm.
For those looking to explore more about the Cubs’ pitching development, check out our Sports Baseball section for in-depth analysis and player profiles. Additionally, our News MLB category offers the latest updates on player transactions and team strategies.
Final Thoughts
Javier Assad’s journey from an undrafted free agent to a reliable major league starter is a compelling narrative in an era where velocity and strikeouts often dominate the conversation around pitching. His success underscores the importance of pitch sequencing, location, and adaptability in modern baseball. As the Cubs continue to build around their core, Assad’s role will be pivotal in determining whether the team can return to postseason contention in the coming years
